How I see this panning out is that the US and China will continue to grow and expand and the battle to be number one will intensify. The Chinese have a long way to go to catch up though, with a Nominal GDP of 8 trillion compared to the USA of 16 trillion (USD from IMF 2012). The “pegged” Renminbi will become a sticking point and crucially so as AGSP3 (Janet Yellen, who starts work in Feb) reduces the US$75B/month spending spree of the Fed’s quantitative easing. This “tapering” of QE3 will give strength to the Greenback which will in turn hurt the terms of trade with China. A delicate balance the Fed must walk.
Over in the old world the Brits are growing at healthy rate and Carney too will look to reduce their “Asset Purchase Program”, I expect the pound to remain strong against most crosses apart from the greenback; that will be harder to read. The Europeans, as a region are the largest GDP, at 16.6T, but are also the weak link in the global economic picture http://easy.smartforextrade.com/ . They are starting to show signs of recovery, and certainly Germany is holding up well, but there is a lot of rot still present in Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy.
Up in Japan they have a few issues going on and not least economically. They have two wolves at the door in China and Nth Korea, the former looking to expand and assert itself as the regional super power and the latter just a constant pain the peaceful butt. Economically the Japanese are the worst of the top 5 (US, China, Euro, UK, Jap) and will continue to weaken the yen with all eyes shut.
So, it shall be an interesting year and many opportunities to be had but as always we must trade what we see, not what we believe. Always remember that belief is the death of intelligence.
没有评论:
发表评论