2016年1月6日星期三

Forex daily briefing trading market

On today's Forex trading market, The near-term rebound in XAU/USD may gather pace as Gold clears the December high ($1,089), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) carves a bullish trend; will keep a close eye on former support around $1,102 (38.2% retracement) to $1,103 (78.6% expansion) for new resistance. May see increased demand for Gold should the risk adverse market ultimately turn into a flight to quality but, the long-term outlook remains bearish as the precious metal continues to carve a long-term series of lower highs & lows. The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long XAU/USD since December but, the ratio has come off of recent extremes as it narrows to +1.47, with 59% of traders now long. AUD/USD stands at risk of facing a further decline as the RSI fails to retail the bullish formation from September, while price looks to follow suit as the pair it threatens the upward trend from the same period. With Australia’s Trade Balance report anticipated to show a narrowing deficit in November, a marked improvement may spur a near-term bounce in the exchange rate but, the pair may continue to give back the rebound from the 2015 low (0.6906) especially as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle. Close below 0.7080 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) may open up the next downside target around 0.7000 handle (78.6% retracement). Technical Outlook: EURUSD is testing Fibonacci support at 1.0723 with today’s mixed FOMC minutes sparking a rebound in the exchange rate. The commentary suggests the bar remains high for another rate hike in the first quarter of 2016 and as such, the dollar may face near-term headwinds as market participants reprice the trajectory of US interest rates. Nevertheless, the broader outlook for the greenback remains constructive as the more prominent FOMC members such as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer anticipates the central bank to achieve the 2% inflation goal overt the policy horizon. Near-term resistance stands at 1.0830 backed by the upper median-line parallel / the December high-day close at 1.0924- a breach above this level would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the topside. A break of the lows targets confluence support at 1.0632 & a longer-term trendline support extending off the 2000 low ~1.0565. A break below key confluence support at 1.0724/34 targets the 1.0688 pivot & the 78.6% retracement at 1.0633- note that this level converges on the lower median-line parallel into the close of the week. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 24-27pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into Eurozone data tomorrow morning and the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday with the releases likely to fuel further volatility EUR & USD crosses. Markets displayed aggressively risk-averse price action last night on the news that North Korea successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. But it may not have been an actual ‘hydrogen’ bomb, and that’s an important distinction for the world right now. - But even with the knowledge that this may not have been a hydrogen bomb, risk aversion came back into markets on the European open, and is still showing as of right now. - We’re likely in for heavy volatility, and if you want to trade through this you need to be ready. Poor risk management can be exposed in times like this. Read our Traits of Successful Traders research to get that risk management tightened up. The detonation of a ‘hydrogen’ bomb in North Korea has many on their toes this morning, and we saw a strong dose of risk aversion last night on news North Korea had successfully detonated a nuclear bomb. But as more news and data came in, it became rather apparent that this wasn’t a hydrogen bomb at all, and rather an atomic bomb. An atomic bomb is still ‘bad,’ but we’ve known that North Korea has had those for a long time, and this certainly wouldn’t be their first ‘test’ of an atomic bomb. This is an important distinction, because it denotes how much potential power, and how much of a threat that Pyongyang might become. An atomic bomb uses nuclear fission in its reaction; a hydrogen bomb uses both nuclear fission and nuclear fusion; a far stronger force than using just fission alone. A Hydrogen bomb uses the explosions of many atomic bombs to reach the temperature necessary to trigger the hydrogen component; and the hydrogen bomb creates far more devastation than an atomic bomb would, pound for pound.