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Forex daily briefing trading market

On today's Forex trading market, The near-term rebound in XAU/USD may gather pace as Gold clears the December high ($1,089), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) carves a bullish trend; will keep a close eye on former support around $1,102 (38.2% retracement) to $1,103 (78.6% expansion) for new resistance. May see increased demand for Gold should the risk adverse market ultimately turn into a flight to quality but, the long-term outlook remains bearish as the precious metal continues to carve a long-term series of lower highs & lows. The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long XAU/USD since December but, the ratio has come off of recent extremes as it narrows to +1.47, with 59% of traders now long. AUD/USD stands at risk of facing a further decline as the RSI fails to retail the bullish formation from September, while price looks to follow suit as the pair it threatens the upward trend from the same period. With Australia’s Trade Balance report anticipated to show a narrowing deficit in November, a marked improvement may spur a near-term bounce in the exchange rate but, the pair may continue to give back the rebound from the 2015 low (0.6906) especially as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle. Close below 0.7080 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) may open up the next downside target around 0.7000 handle (78.6% retracement). Technical Outlook: EURUSD is testing Fibonacci support at 1.0723 with today’s mixed FOMC minutes sparking a rebound in the exchange rate. The commentary suggests the bar remains high for another rate hike in the first quarter of 2016 and as such, the dollar may face near-term headwinds as market participants reprice the trajectory of US interest rates. Nevertheless, the broader outlook for the greenback remains constructive as the more prominent FOMC members such as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer anticipates the central bank to achieve the 2% inflation goal overt the policy horizon. Near-term resistance stands at 1.0830 backed by the upper median-line parallel / the December high-day close at 1.0924- a breach above this level would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the topside. A break of the lows targets confluence support at 1.0632 & a longer-term trendline support extending off the 2000 low ~1.0565. A break below key confluence support at 1.0724/34 targets the 1.0688 pivot & the 78.6% retracement at 1.0633- note that this level converges on the lower median-line parallel into the close of the week. A quarter of the daily average true range yields profit targets of 24-27pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into Eurozone data tomorrow morning and the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday with the releases likely to fuel further volatility EUR & USD crosses. Markets displayed aggressively risk-averse price action last night on the news that North Korea successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. But it may not have been an actual ‘hydrogen’ bomb, and that’s an important distinction for the world right now. - But even with the knowledge that this may not have been a hydrogen bomb, risk aversion came back into markets on the European open, and is still showing as of right now. - We’re likely in for heavy volatility, and if you want to trade through this you need to be ready. Poor risk management can be exposed in times like this. Read our Traits of Successful Traders research to get that risk management tightened up. The detonation of a ‘hydrogen’ bomb in North Korea has many on their toes this morning, and we saw a strong dose of risk aversion last night on news North Korea had successfully detonated a nuclear bomb. But as more news and data came in, it became rather apparent that this wasn’t a hydrogen bomb at all, and rather an atomic bomb. An atomic bomb is still ‘bad,’ but we’ve known that North Korea has had those for a long time, and this certainly wouldn’t be their first ‘test’ of an atomic bomb. This is an important distinction, because it denotes how much potential power, and how much of a threat that Pyongyang might become. An atomic bomb uses nuclear fission in its reaction; a hydrogen bomb uses both nuclear fission and nuclear fusion; a far stronger force than using just fission alone. A Hydrogen bomb uses the explosions of many atomic bombs to reach the temperature necessary to trigger the hydrogen component; and the hydrogen bomb creates far more devastation than an atomic bomb would, pound for pound.

外汇市场每日分析1221

周五市场带来或多或少的意外，非美没有走出一边倒的下跌，反而是底部盘整后出现了一定的拉升。欧美日线探底收阳，1.08的位置不能跌破，我们给出的顺势空单未能入场，但是激进的多单带来不错的盈利空间。镑美1.4960附近做空的策略也有很好的收益。这里更多外汇排名。 今日是一周的开始，周线上各大非美货币小有分化，澳美底部收十字星受到上升趋势线支撑，纽币则高位收射击之星形成看跌形态，美加周线一枝独秀，1.4是月线关键阻力。欧美日线双K反转，尽管周线阴阳相吞，正确的做空思路依旧是等待1.08跌破，镑美最弱，整体震荡下跌的节奏，本周可能先涨后跌。 欧美周五收录阳线，日线双K反转加双针探底，今日给出找低位进场做多的思路。早盘尽管小幅跳空低开，但是随后缺口回补后欧美来到小时级别头肩底颈线位置盘整，走势不影响我们做多的判断。 策略上，同样1.08下方为止损寻找做多的机会，入场位置需找1.0830-1.0850之间，上面先看1.09附近。这单止损则意味着欧美1.08支撑失手，止损后反手入场做空选择隔夜持有。 镑美周五日线同样收阴，日线连跌6日疲软无疑。唯一值得注意的是1.4870的低点在周五未能被跌破，某种程度上看给予英镑一定的反弹机会。考虑到周线深跌，下方止损有依有据，今日给出激进做多的思路。 今日策略，1.4890附近寻找做多机会，止损1.4860下方。上方做空位置找1.4995附近，止损20-30点足矣。整体看1.4860-1.50之间短线区间震荡。 澳美周线收录低位十字星，且受到日线上升趋势线支撑，理论上给出看涨信号。值得注意的是周五上涨趋势较弱未能形成吞噬的反转形态，整体中短线信号不一。 策略上，建议进一步的观望等待更为明确的一致性，其次日内短线寻找0.7130-60附近尝试做多，小额目标出场。 黄金走势依然纠结，整体无法给出更多的分析，技术上维持在通道内运行，静心等待突破的节奏或者围绕上下轨高空低多。 上周美股跌A股涨，美油创七年新低。 中国央行对部分银行进行六个月期MLF操作，规模1000亿元。 美国正式解除长达40年原油出口禁令。 本周关注美国，英国和法国GDP数据。 深入了解每周交易行情，欢迎报名参加每周外汇金融在线实盘课堂！ 今日交易提示 澳洲股指200——日内上涨到5010之上，目标价位5130，之后向5160延伸。 黄金——交易中心建议在支点1062做多，目标价位1078，之后向1085延伸。 澳元/美元——COT报告市场情绪进一步恶化，投资者进一步看空澳元。 欧元/美元——Morgan Stanley表示欧元受全球风险情绪影响以及德拉吉开始担心通胀率，欧元下跌。 英镑/美元——本周日间主要趋势是下跌，目标价位1.48。 美元/日元—— Morgan Stanley认为美元/日元上涨，目标价位123.05。

nzdusd usdcad usdjpy gold 2014.01.07

NZDUSD – Has been messy since mid-Oct and I do not see that changing anytime soon. Effectively will be range bound b/w 81 and 85 cents, should be lower though, towards 77¢.
Resistance: 8475/8535/8607
Support: 8190/8131/8100

USDCAD – Has chopped about in December as the Greenback and Loonie both gain strength. The US will win though so be looking for long opportunities.

Resistance: 10673/10830/10985
Support: 10560/10420/10195

USDJPY – As mentioned above, the US dollar is strengthening and the ¥ is weakening. Central Bank http://vttrader.smartforextrade.com/ and government policies from both sides indicate that this trend will continue, so like the Loonie, look to buy any dips. 

Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 103.34/101.65/100.00

GOLD – Retested support and recent lows of 1180 last week, and is now back on its 50ema. It is getting harder and harder to read this commodity but I would be looking to short it as the US come out of the wilderness and tame the inflation fears.
Resistance: 1265/1,307/1,350
Support: 1,225/1,180/1,040

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY 2014

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – UK Services PMI. US Non-manufacturing PMI.

AUDUSD – Seems to have found a floor here around 89¢, being the high in 1989 and bouncing off it September too. Price is looking to retrace back to its 50ema as more selling pressure builds. I do expect the Aussie to strengthen but that is later in the year as our economy slowly turns the corner and the government repairs the damage of the previous group of muppets. In the mid-term I expect it may well test 80cents as the greenback strengthens.
Resistance: 9000/9300/9428
Support: 8890/8720/8550

EURUSD http://invest.smartforextrade.com/– Tumbled last week as traders viewed its rally as not worthy and I have to agree with that. The weakest link should not be rewarded with a high currency. Here I expect it to get a bit messy, frothing, but would prefer to be looking for shorts back to 1.30.

Resistance: 13640/13830/14065
Support: 13488/13266/13135

GBPUSD – Would like to be long Pound but not necessarily the Cable. Expect a test of the 50ema and support level of 1.63 this week.
Resistance: 16474/16610/16740
Support: 16300/15950/15830

overview the markets jan 2014

How I see this panning out is that the US and China will continue to grow and expand and the battle to be number one will intensify. The Chinese have a long way to go to catch up though, with a Nominal GDP of 8 trillion compared to the USA of 16 trillion (USD from IMF 2012). The “pegged” Renminbi will become a sticking point and crucially so as AGSP3 (Janet Yellen, who starts work in Feb) reduces the US$75B/month spending spree of the Fed’s quantitative easing. This “tapering” of QE3 will give strength to the Greenback which will in turn hurt the terms of trade with China. A delicate balance the Fed must walk.

Over in the old world the Brits are growing at healthy rate and Carney too will look to reduce their “Asset Purchase Program”, I expect the pound to remain strong against most crosses apart from the greenback; that will be harder to read. The Europeans, as a region are the largest GDP, at 16.6T, but are also the weak link in the global economic picture http://easy.smartforextrade.com/ . They are starting to show signs of recovery, and certainly Germany is holding up well, but there is a lot of rot still present in Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy. 

Up in Japan they have a few issues going on and not least economically. They have two wolves at the door in China and Nth Korea, the former looking to expand and assert itself as the regional super power and the latter just a constant pain the peaceful butt. Economically the Japanese are the worst of the top 5 (US, China, Euro, UK, Jap) and will continue to weaken the yen with all eyes shut. 

So, it shall be an interesting year and many opportunities to be had but as always we must trade what we see, not what we believe. Always remember that belief is the death of intelligence.

coming back in new year 2014

Good morning and hello to you all, I trust you all survived the festive season with much frivolity and family time. Supagirl and I had a fabulous break in Australia spending our time with family on the New South Wales Central Coast and on the farm outside of Tamworth. Good relaxation was had and we are ready to tackle 2014 with gusto.

I am not a fan of cricket but the Ashes win was historical, as much for the 5 nil whitewash as it was for the teams’ turnaround, from zero to hero. Aren’t the Australian media and public fickle! Tennis is more my summer thing, so I enjoyed the ol’ dog Hewitt get a tournament win, especially against the legendary Federer.

There has been little in the way of headlines the last few weeks, as you would expect at this time of year. I have had some minor trades on that were all closed out last Friday, so this kept me with one eye on the markets during the break. 

The general direction of the market recently has been steady and rather predictable http://aussie.smartforextrade.com/ , we hope this will continue however when central bankers are involved things do get muddled. Later this week we have the ECB and BOE both coming out with their monetary policy stance. Then the US Non-Farm payrolls on Friday night might give us some indication of the direction of the US.